Like many Bills fans, I thought that Dick Jauron's firing was inevitable after the 2-8 finish to the season, scoring a whopping 6 points in their last 3 home games, going 0-6 in the division and blowing a 4-0 start to the season. So I was as disappointed and angry as everyone else when I heard that Ralph Wilson has decided to retain Jauron for at least another season. But, as i think about it more, I am starting to realize why this was the best move for the team this season. The Bills had 3 options as far as the coach goes: 1. Keep Jauron 2. Fire Jauron and hire one of the top available coaches (Cowher, Holmgren or Shanahan) or 3. Fire Jauron and hire another unknown coach with no experience. Bills fans of course were hoping Ralph Wilson would go with Option 2. The problem is that there is no chance that any of those coaches would come to Buffalo. In an attempt to show why, let me offer up this "letter to the coaching candidates":

Dear Cowher, Holmgren, Shanahan,

I thought you might be interested in coming to coach the Buffalo Bills. Yes, it can be pretty nasty up here in the winter time, but its really a lovely city. If you can make it through the snow, 4th of July is really nice! Its not the biggest market in America but Russ Brandon has been doing a great job selling the souls of the Buffalo people to Toronto. But, all weather and market related issues aside, we have a really mediocre football team!

Our starting QB was given the confidence vote by Bill Walsh on his death bed! So we have committed to him despite the fact that he has a history of missing games for minor injuries, struggles in the type of weather that is most common late in the season in Buffalo, has only thrown more than 1 touchdown in a game 3 times in his career (only once in 2008), has never thrown for over 300 yards in a game, threw nearly 1/3 of his passes to his runningbacks this season, throws deep so rarely that defenses dont even cover deep against us, was ranked 27th in the league for TD percentage, 27th for TDs (tied with seneca Wallace and Mark Bulger), 23rd for passing yards, tied for 27th in the league for longest completion this season and checks down when receivers are wide open deep. But don't worry we think he's coming along nicely! Look at that pocket presence! Man does he look good in the pocket and he's also great in press conferences! He's much better than Losman at making excuses for this awful offense. Don't worry about his tendency to get banged up because we have Gibran Hamdan to back him up. Thats right, Hamdan. Need we say more?

We've got two great runningbacks but a bunch of fat ineffective lineman so it doesnt matter. Our tightends wouldnt make the roster on most teams in the league let alone start. We have a great deep threat in lee Evans, but Edwards can't throw the ball far enough for him to be a real factor, and behind him we have a solid 3rd receiver in Reed who is playing 2nd receiver and a bunch of special teams aces playing receiver behind him.

Our defense is pretty average too! we desperately need more linebackers, our only good Defnsive End is coming off an injury which may hobble him from here on out, behind him we have nobody, but I'm sure you can fix that. We need a Free Safety to compliment our underperforming first round draft pick at strong safety. Did I mention how good Whitner is at press conferences though? He guaranteed the team would make the playoffs in 2008, now thats the enthusiasm we like to see from our players! We do have a bunch of young corners but dont worry, when push comes to shove, we wont resign any of them when their contract is up as we will do with Jabari Greer this off-season. We have some talent at Tackle and middle linebacker, but the shoddy play at weakside linebacker and Defensive End all but negates their impact.

Our Special Teams is actually consistently very strong, we have a great punter and lots of strong return men. Our place kicker is consistent until the game is on the line. Unfortunately our special teams is only good because of the coaching Bobby April has provided them and he will most certainly be gone when we change head coaches.

Our last 4 coaches lasted 3 years or less. Also, the players we do have are all really young and inexperienced. So... Want the job?

Sincerely,

Ralph Wilson

P.S. I don't believe in paying large coaching salaries so be prepared to take a big pay cut. See you on the sidelines!


There isn't a top coach in the league that would want to take the reins of this mess right now. So that rules out option 2. That leaves a choice between continuity hopefully leading to enough improvement for this team to take the next step, or gambling on yet another unproven coordinator a la Mularkey, Williams etc. The Bills aren't the only team that has been disappointed by hot coordinator coaching prospects. Look at Mangini and Crennel, both were arguably safer selections than ones the Bills have made and they both failed as well. Taking a new coach from the coordinator pool woudl almost certainly result in a full rebuild of this team by a guy that has never done it before. Very low odds of success. Despite the lack of change in overall record over the three Jauron years, the team has improved statistically. Buffalo improved from 30th to 25th on Offense overall from 2007 to 2008 and from 30th to 14th on defense. Considering that the team was ranked 30th in both categories in 2007, maybe our expectations were a little high? Miami may have had a dramatic improvement in their record this year, but they actually made a smaller jump in statistical ranking, Miami defensively improved from 23rd in 2007 to 15th and Offensively from 28th to 12th. So the Bills defense actually had greater improvement than the Dolphins while the Dolphins Offense made a big jump versus the Bills smaller jump. Why? The Dolphins switched to a proven reliable quarterback while the Bills stayed pat with Awful Losman backing up Mediocre Edwards. Thankfully, Losman's walking away from Buffalo forces the Bills to obtain another quarterback from somewhere, lets hope they have enough sense to get somebody that will improve the team rather than sitting back and smiling about the "improvement" from Edwards which happened but not to a degree that should leave us all feeling comfortable.

It would have been nice to see a big name come in and take Buffalo to the next level, but as it stands, the Bills are probably better off continuing their slow improvement under Jauron than take another wild shot with an unknown comodity. At the very least, Jauron has the support of the players which actually says quite a bit. Even when the 2008 season was already dead for the Bills, the team came out and beat Denver on the road and played a solid close game against the Patriots. (Fred Jackson's running in that game was spectacular, the Pats had nearly every player up to block the run in that strong wind, the Bills didn't even pretend to pass the ball and Jackson still had 5 yards a carry. Wow.)

Well, the 2008 season is over. What a disappointment. It will take months before I can start feeling positive about 2009.

1. Just when you think you've seen the worst conditions possible, along comes another remarkable Orchard Park game. Has the wind ever blown harder at a game? Maybe, but that was pretty bad.

The weather probably helped the Bills. It was in several ways great equalizer. The wind took the passing game from both teams, leaving both teams with only the run and some short passes. In those condtions, Randy Moss was just another receiver. Lee Evans (who got to the 1000 yards he deserved) was more valuable than Moss.

So the game came down to running the ball, where the Bills are pretty competitive. They ran well.

Unfortunately, while the weather conditions minimize the talents of the players, the conditions magnify the talents of the coaches. In that weather, players can't make many big plays. So coaching decisions are even more important than in most other games, and this was the best coach in the history of the game against Dick Jauron. No contest.

2. Let's hear it for the offensive line. It took another entire season, but they're finally making a believer of me. The Bills played without their best offensive lineman, against a decent run defense that knew the Bills would come right at them, and the run game sparkled. Those guys made holes, moved the pile, just kept working to get every yard they could. It was a great show by some guys who may have learned, a little too late for this season, what it takes to make the running game go. And for those who were complaining that Kirk Chambers didn't have a role on this team, look again. The guy clearly has progressed. He did a really nice job in the last two games. He certainly wasn't a liability. Is it possible we've seen Jason Peters for the last time?

Pass protection, on the other hand, still needs serious work. Anyone watching film (heck, anyone watching the games live who's watching the line play) figured out weeks ago that the Bills are clueless when it comes to picking up stunting linemen. It happened at least two or three times again yesterday: defensive end rushes to the inside, tackle stays with him; defensive tackle delays, then loops around the outside. One time Dockery was just standing in the backfield wondering where his man went, until he saw his man heading straight for the QB. Trent's fumble was altogether not his fault, and several of the other times he was hit happened the same way. Either the coaches aren't teaching (I'm betting they are) or the players aren't learning (I'm betting thy're not). It's a real problem.

3. Speaking of Trent - nice game. He had a MUCH better day than he had in Cleveland in the blizzard - this game he actually figured out how to deliver the ball on plays when it seemed impossible. One of the best was the one that Royal dropped (Robert must have been amazed the ball got there). 70 passer rating isn't great, but under the conditions was certainly good enough. (Cassel's rating was higher, but he didn't have to throw as much because he was (no surprises here) winning most of the game. He also wide open receivers.) Trent made good decisions, scrambled nicely, got sacked primarily because of blocking breakdowns, and had a fumble courtesy of Derrick Dockery.

Oh, and for those who didn't like it last week when I complained about Trent dragging himself off the ground after sacks like he was near death, I won't apologize. I will say, however, that that may have been Trent getting used to the game again after a little layoff. He got hit pretty well by the Patriots, and each time he just got up and went back at it. Good for him.

I predicted in June that Trent would finish the season as a top 15 passer. He didn't make it (finsihed 17th), but he did finish surrounded by playoff QBs - Eli, Flacco, Cutler, McNabb, Delhomme - and way ahead of Roethlisberger. Trent has a lot of upside - he'll work hard in the off-season and be better next year. Trent may not be a star in the future, but he's a good bet.

4. Freddy Jackson is a gamer. Teams will spend a lot of time in the off-season devising ways to stop the wildcat; the Bills should spend time figuring out new ways to deploy it with Fred and Marshawn. (Meanwhile, if Marshawn had been healthy, this game could actually have been a win for the Bills. I don't know if the Pats could have taken more pounding than they got with just one of these stars.)

We didn't see anything new from Freddy yesterday, just more of the same: Quick to the hole, any hole. Really good burst. Surprising power. And a big heart. Great, great performance.

5. A couple of things about coaching. First, kudos to Dan Dierdorf, who was right on the money time after time in criticizing the Bills' calls from the sidelines: (a) No sense of urgency with just under two minutes in the first half - that wasted time killed them in the end. (b) Too long in the huddle on the last play of the half. (c) Duke Preston fails to return to huddle after last play of the half. (d) Failure to go no huddle with the wind in the third quarter. (e) Empty the backfield on fourth and one or two, showing the Pats that it was a certain pass. Dierdorf had them all right. There were others, too (like trying a 40+ yard field goal in a tornado), but Dierdorf hit the high points.

6. On the other side of the field was Bill Belichick. While Dick was bumbling, what was Bill doing? Calling timeouts in the first quarter to keep the wind at his back, quick-kicking with the wind to get the good roll and pin the Bills deep, saving a play (the pass to Welker on the left sideline) that he knew the Bills couldn't defend to use in the critical touchdown drive, having the RIGHT playcall on fourth down (the play action roll out keeper).

The Bills were clearly outprepared and outthought in this game, but that doesn't really qualify as news.

7. The Ball Burglar really let us down, too. He needed two takeaways to bring the season total over $11,000 - big money to help lots of kids fight serious illness. He got none.

But the $11,000 challenge isn't over. The Burglar needs just 15 Bills fans to agree to pay $1 per takeaway for the 2008 season - just $25 each (22 takeaways plus $3 extra for the three TD returns). Fifteen fans. You're out there. Now's the time to help. http://www.ballburglar.com/.

And thanks to all those Burglars who have pledged a total of more than $400 per takeaway so far this season.

8. Exactly how many guys did the Bills have out there wearing number 95? Six solo tackles? SIX!!! From a defensive tackle? What a performance. Kyle Williams was everywhere. My new favorite player.

9. I hope Donte is all right. Clearly, it wasn't his best season, but it's never fun to see one of your guys go down like that.

It takes enormous courage to play this game. He never backs down, and he didn't on that play.

I expect him back, playing with dedication that will be unlike anything we've seen before.

10. In the end, the Bills were a little below average. Overall, 25th in yards per game offense, 23rd in points per game offense. 22nd in passing yards, 22nd in passing rating. 14th in rushing yards, 16th in rushing average. The offense lagged behind the defense all season.

14th in yards per game defense, 14th in points per game defense. 13th in passing yards defense, 16th in passer rating defense. 22nd in rushing yards allowed, 21st in yards per carry defense. The defense wasn't bad, but it wasn't good enough.

The Bills beat the teams they should have beaten, and lost to the teams they should lost to.

This game was emblematic of all of that. Average. The Bills were, for the Patriots and for every other good team they played this season, a worthy opponent. They played hard, fought all the way to the end, made it tough for the Pats to win. But, for the Pats and every other good team they Bills played, the Bills were just a team that wouldn't roll over before losing. The Bills made good teams work for the win but were never able to make good teams lose. Average.


If I had to pick a team I wanted to win the AFC east other than the Bills, it would have been the Dolphins. I wanted the Pats out, and I didn't want the carpetbagger in. Congratualations to Chad Pennington and his new teammates. They earned it, and I'm happy for Chad. Good player, class act.

See you all in the new year.

GO BILLS!!! GO BURGLAR!!!

LAST WEEK: 10-6 :: OVERALL: 160-95-1 (62.5%)

The season has come to a close, and with a rather mediocre showing in the final two weeks, my record as a prognosticator is equally mediocre. Much like my favorite football team!

Looking ahead to the playoffs, I do see some interesting possible matchups.

First off, this wildcard weekend. I actually think all four wild card teams will win their games. Has that ever happened before? All four wild-card, road teams winning? Probably not. But that speaks to the caliber of those four divisions, NFC West, NFC North, AFC West, and even AFC East. I think all four of their opponents are better than they are.

If that happens, that sets up interesting divisional round games. All four would be divisional matchups! (Again, has that ever happened before??) Indy @ Tennessee, Baltimore @ Pittsburgh, Philly @ NY Giants, and Atlanta @ Carolina. What a great set of games! Those are much harder to pick, to be sure, but I really like the momentum the Colts have, and I see a rematch of the game a couple weeks ago at the Meadowlands on the NFC side.

So, Indy at Pittsburgh, and Carolina at New York... again, a great weekend of football. Both should be very good games. (Even if Baltimore somehow manages to upset Pittsburgh the week before... would be a good matchup of both Baltimore franchises.)

In the end, defense (and enough offense) wins. Pittsburgh will play the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants for the Lombardi Trophy in February. That will be a great game as well... I'd have to give the nod to the Giants and their crazy unstoppable running game in that one. But Pittsburgh has found a way to win all the games they needed to this year. So, you never know.

Let the playoffs begin!

(And for the Bills... there's always next year. Which, is really true for us. There is ALWAYS next year...)

Labels: Greg's Weekly Picks, NFL, Playoffs

Here's the thing. I'm not sure that running a franchise in Madden '08 is the same thing as running an actual NFL franchise, but they seem to have done a good job of adding enough of the pieces that it very closely parallels that experience. And, in that the Bills have languished in mediocrity for a decade or more now... wouldn't you think they'd want some advice from a successful NFL owner/GM? I have managed to take the 2007 Buffalo Bills - a middle of the pack team - and turn them into the highest rated team, and a financially successful organization after just three seasons.

So, Russ, if you're listening... here's what I'd do.

Football Man at the Top
I really believe Russ Brandon has been good for the Bills, and will be good for the Bills. I think if he wants to keep the franchise moving forward, the first thing they have to do is bring in a "football guy" to make football decisions. Right now Tom Modrak and John Guy are making those decisions, and they are doing a 7-9 job of it. What I would do is bring in a guy who has proven to win wherever he has gone - and a guy who has been around - and put him at the top of the chain for football-related decisions. Not a business guy... that's Brandon. A football guy.

My top pick? Mike Holmgren. He's retiring in Seattle. Doesn't want to coach for now. But he could perhaps be persuaded to continue earning a fat paycheck as the Head Direction Giver for the Bills, much like Bill Parcells in Miami. Turned them around in ONE SEASON. These Bills have much more talent than the Dolphins did last year.

Once Holmgren is here, he can evaluate the staff, the players, and maybe with a little pruning and a few additions... we're right where the Dolphins are this year.

TRADE JASON PETERS
Russ... please... if you are listening... this is almost mandatory.

The JPs must go. They are both a cancer to this team. I didn't know that about the larger JP until this past off season. But the way he handled his dispute with the Bills (which was interesting, in that he had THREE more years on his contract...) was just ridiculous, unprofessional, and revealed much about his character. Then the way he has played this year, coupled with his various public comments, and then sitting out the last two games... the man HAS to go.

QB JP is a free agent, and will be gone. But LT JP still has two years on his current contract. And, maybe his undeserved second invite to the Pro Bowl will actually benefit the Buffalo Bills.

Here's the plan. Trade our "young, talented, two-time Pro Bowl LT" to one of the top three teams in the 2009 draft (Detroit, Kansas City, or St. Louis) and select Michael Oher or Andre Smith with that pick. Both these guys are super highly rated tackles in what is being called a rich offensive lineman draft class. Michael Oher should be amazing. He could easily equal (and hopefully exceed) what Peters did this season. So trade Peters for their top pick... straight up. They get a "proven", Pro Bowl left tackle, and we get to dump Peters.

DRAFT WISELY!
The Bills will have the #10 pick in this year's draft. That's a pretty good pick. If they do trade Peters for a top three pick, that would be two of the top ten picks in the 2009 draft. Theoretically... that's amazing. And what they really, really need is a top-notch defensive lineman. A real play maker. Like a Bruce Smith. Oh, how we miss Bruce Smith. There seem to be some pretty good choices in this draft class, too. Athletic guys who can make things happen on the field. That's what we need.

Also, we need to build depth. We should draft a decent QB prospect, as we'll be losing one this off-season. (I have already said, I'd like to see University at Buffalo QB, Drew Willy as a Bill.) We also need to think about depth on both lines. Our middle round picks should be used for both lines, offensive and defensive. With the #10 pick (and hopefully a top three pick) the Bills could have three picks in the top 50. Maybe trade up with some lower round picks and get another high second round pick if that fits our needs. A few quality guys from this draft might be just what we need to break out of mediocrity!

Free Agent Signings: Defensive Play Makers!
A lot of people have their sites set on Albert Haynesworth of the Tennessee Titans. He is definitely a force, and a good player. But he is not the type of guy the Bills generally go after. In the news too often for the wrong reasons. However, there are a couple other guys who may be worth the Bills shelling out big bucks for.

Terrell Suggs is my top choice. He is a defensive end/linebacker who makes lots of plays. He could be much like Cornelius Bennett was for the Bills in the 1990s. Bennett was just all around great. All over the field, making big plays when we needed them, covering, tackling, and especially, getting pressure on the QB. Imagine a Bills team with a healthy Aaron Schobel, Marcus Stroud, one of those top DEs from the draft, Terrell Suggs, and the current playmakers, Poz, Mitchell, and the secondary. That is much improved right there.

Another guy they may take a look at is Julius Peppers. Peppers has always been a force on defense, though he is getting older, and perhaps losing a step. But if they can not get Suggs, I would think Peppers has enough left in him, teamed with some guys already on the field here, to make a difference for Buffalo.

Give Dick Jauron an Ultimatum
It is quite obvious that the players like to play for Dick Jauron. That's a good thing. Should rally them to play their best football. But so far... that has only equaled 7 wins. Three years in a row. That's not good enough. Russ, if you're listening, you really need to say to Dick... this is it. You either make the playoffs, or we are going to bring in someone else who can. The NFL is a very short season. While good plays, and players who are happy are all good things... winning is really the bottom line. When a team has not made the playoffs for a decade... that's really inexcusable. (Reference again the 2007-2008 Miami Dolphins... worst in the league to AFC East champs in ONE season.)

So, early in the off-season, let Jauron know that he is in fact playing for his job this next season. Whatever that means... hiring new assistants, letting them have more game day decision control, bringing in better players... whatever. The ultimatum is: playoffs, or pink slip.

That'll Do It!
And, Mr. Brandon, if you are listening, and if you heed most or all of this wise counsel... our Buffalo Bills should be once again, not only competitive, but perhaps even champions.

Please do whatever it takes to get President Wilson to authorize these moves, and you'll be the smartest GM in town.

Labels: Coaching Staff, Offseason, Recommendations, Transactions

Since the season has ended for our Buffalo Bills... it's time to start thinking about next year! Now that we know the order of finish for the teams in each division, we also know the teams that we will play next season, home and away. (The actual schedule of the games isn't available until sometime in April, usually.)

So here it is:

HOME: Buccaneers, Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Saints, Texans, Browns

AWAY: Dolphins, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, Patriots, Titans, Chiefs

Playing the AFC and NFC South divisions next year should be quite a challenge. Most of those teams were not only very well-rounded, successful teams in 2008... they are also young. Meaning they'll very likely be as good or better next year.

I just hope we don't go 7-9 again.

Labels: Schedule

If there was any doubt regarding the game-day competency of Dick Jauron I hope Sunday set the record straight.

LAST WEEK: 10-6 :: OVERALL: 150-89-1

The final week of the season (following a busy week of holiday fun!) is imminent. All sixteen games will be played on Sunday. And there are several games that will affect the playoffs, making it a very interesting week indeed.


Could the Bengals win three in a row to end the season? Nah. Look for KC to win on the road. WINNER: Kansas City.


Detroit can make history... or avoid it. I think they'd prefer the latter, and may play hard enough to make that happen. WINNER: Detroit


The Bills have lost 10 in a row to the Pats. The Pats need to win to make the playoffs. Not a good formula for a Bills win. Still... I just have a feeling the players will be loose enough to win... WINNER: Buffalo


Chicago needs to win the playoffs... but Houston might be better. WINNER: Houston


The Giants have wrapped up home field advantage, and Minnesota needs to win. That's a recipe for... WINNER: Minnesota


Um... WINNER: Pittsburgh


Tampa Bay needs to win, and Oakland is playing for next season. Should be an easy one. WINNER: Tampa Bay


New Orleans is tough at home, but Carolina wants to win the division. Breaking the streak of the home NFC South teams winning... WINNER: Carolina


Maybe the hottest team in the NFL right now? Going with the hot team. WINNER: Indianapolis


Atlanta would still like to win their division, too... WINNER: Atlanta


My head says San Francisco wins this one, but Washington beat Philly last weekend... WINNER: Washington


Wouldn't it be weird if Arizona finished 8-8? Very possible, but going with the favorite here. WINNER: Arizona


A dismal season comes to a merciful end for the Jags. WINNER: Baltimore


Miami wins, they take the East. For some reason, I have a feeling the Jets will play one more good game this season and end up on top. They'll also be rooting hard for the Bills in the earlier game... WINNER: NY Jets


Philly still has an outside chance at the Playoffs, and I like the cold-weather team in late December. WINNER: Philadelphia


Denver had a three game lead with three games left, but a determined SD team could take the division with a win at home. WINNER: San Diego


Buffalo stands a chance to not only end the streak o losses to to New England, but knock them out of the playoffs in the process. They looked pretty decent last weekend, but if they give up 500 yards to the Pats this week, they will not look very decent on the scoreboard.

Fun to see so many key divisional matchups that actually matter this weekend. Looking forward to seeing the games!

Go Bills!

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Labels: Greg's Weekly Picks

1. By Sunday morning before the Broncos game, I had come to realize something important about being a Bills fan. It doesn't matter to me if the Bills fire their head coach. It doesn't matter to me if Jason Peters plays or doesn't play. It doesn't matter to me if Trent Edwards succeeds or fails.

The Buffalo Bills matter to me. I'm a Bills fan, and I watch the games. I root for my team every week. I love it when they win; it hurts when they lose. I get pleasure out of it every week, even when they lose. All the rest is just noise, and the noise makes me unhappy.

So I was completely at ease Sunday afternoon, because I was ready simply to enjoy what I love - another Bills game. Well, not completely ready. There was a big storm in New England, so I drove to a local sports bar instead of one of the better bars. The local joint only has about 12 TVs. We walked in; 9 TVs had the Pats blowing out the Cards, and 3 had the beginning of the Jets game. THe Pats game kept going and going. Finally, after about 10 minutes of dealing with waitresses and changing tables, 10 minutes of my blood pressure rising, the Bills were on - and down 7-0! First thing I saw was the Bills first offensive series. I would have been better off watching The Deer Hunter or some other upbeat movie.

2. The past couple of months have been so discouraging, I'm finding it hard to get excited about a win. I have to stop and think about it first.

This was a great win! Come from behind, on the road, bad weather, against a playoff-contending team with a winning record. Great win! The team was dealing with the Peters thing, Lynch being injuired, Trent coming back, all of the noise about the coaches.

I love the players on this team, and they deserve some success. Against the Broncos, they got some.

3. There are a lot of things wrong with this team, and slow starts is one of them. It's absolutely maddening. I didn't see the opening drive, and I haven't gone back to review the play by play. Why should I? I've seen it before. The defense can't stop the opening drive, and the Bills can't move the ball to open the game.

I'm convinced it's because everyone knows what the Bills are going to do. The Bills have announced to the world that they will play passive, bend-don't-break defense and adjust as the game goes along. That's an invitation to offensive coordinators to script the first drive and take advantage of the Bills' passive approach.

On offense, it's clear the Bills will try to run the ball and won't throw deep. So the defensive coordinators script their opening defenses to attack the standard offense and give the QB some new looks.

The Bills were down 10-0 before they began to compete. It's happened virtually every week.

I think the coaches put the players at a serious disadvantage by playing such predictable schemes. When the Bills play predictable schemes, they have to be better, physically, to win. Other teams also win by outsmarting the opponent, disguising defenses, presenting different looks.

4. A bad-weather win for Trent! The first of what I hope will be many.
Here's what I like and don't like about Trent Edwards:

Likes

a. He stands in and takes a hit.
b. He makes decisions in the pocket promptly, and he works to find the open man.
c. His throws are accurate. (Anyone wonder like I did that the ball he threw behind Roscoe was intentional? BIlls were going left to right on the screen, Roscoe came off the left side of the line, and about 12 yards downfield cut across the middle. Looked to me like the linebacker was coming into the zone, Trent saw it and threw behind Roscoe. Was Roscoe supposed to see it too and settle in the spot instead of continuing the crossing pattern?)

Dislikes

a. He's a drama queen after he gets hit. Get back up and show your team you're ready to go.
b. His throwing motion is ugly and impedes his ability to throw the deep ball. He needs to work on that.
c. I'm still not convinced he recognizes when a receiver will get open. Having said that, he didn't have trouble finding Josh Reed. Josh made the Broncos pay for doubling Lee all day.

I still think Trent is the QB of the future. He's in his second year in the league, 15th in passer rating, 5th in percentage completion and 12th in yards per attempt. In QB rating, he's ahead of McNabb (can we please stop with the "sign McNabb" pleas?), Favre, Roethlisberger, Delhomme and this year's savior, Kerry Collins.

5. The bad play I liked the most: Marcus Stroud's hold. Cost the Bills a takeaway (and cost the Ball Burglar nearly $400) in the process. Why did I like it? Because it was a guy trying to make a play. He was trying clear a path for his teammate to make a run at the QB. He didn't just quit on the play because he was blocked - he understood what was happening on the play and tried to make something more happen. He helped create the pressure that may have forced a quick throw and the interception. Of course, the INT may have happened anyway. Still, Stroud was doing whatever he could.

6. Speaking of the interception, I thought the DBs played pretty well. That's a big-time passing offense with a really effective QB, and the Bills forced 20 incomplete passes. That's a lot. McGee was outstanding. Just running down the wideout on the end-around saved four points - if they'd gotten the touchdown on that play, instead of field goal later in the drive, at the end of the game a field goal would have tied the game. He had some nice pass breakups. He's a good player.

I continue to like Leodis. The INT was nicely done - he has closing quickness better than anyone on the team. There was a third down pass in the second half that they completed against him for a first down, but he was right there.

What bothers me about the back seven is that they can be in the zone, give up a completion and have three guys there to make the tackle. Why can't one of them be there for the breakup? Poz, particularly, seems always to be a half-step late. Maybe he isn't good enough. Maybe he's still learning.

Corner made some plays and got beaten badly sometime too. The game ending play, he was beaten. His recovery was spectacular.

I guess the Bills had Scott at strong and Whitner at free. I saw Whitner cause the fumble Corner recovered, I saw him overrun Royal on the end around when McGee saved his bacon. I didn't see much more of him. He was playing free safety against a team that put up 532 and he made 3 tackles? What's with that? 3 tackles? Were the Bills in the zone all the time? I don't know, but I think the Bills are not turning him loose. He has his assignments and he does them. When you draft a safety in the first round, he's supposed to be someone the offense game plans for. The Bills haven't made him into that kind of player.

7. The Bills running backs are GOOD. Obvious, I know, but it has to be said. Marshawn had several sweet runs, and Fred did too. They're getting some running room and they're making plays. Second half, particularly, it looked like the Bills had worn the Broncos down. Unfortunately, by then the Bills were down to Jackson and Omon, and the Bills (wisely) weren't going to pound Fred over and over again.

8. I really like how the offensive line is performing. No sacks, nice run blocking. It does appear that the line is coming together, but there's a lot more that needs to be done. I'd like the running game to be dominant, and they have a ways to go to get there, or even near there.

I have no idea about Peters. No idea. Poor guy has all this talent and behaves like a jerk. We'll never know, of course, but the Bills probably share some of the blame here. If it's true that they haven't even talked about redoing the contract, they've bungled this situation. We don't know what was said when Peter's came back, but the sense people got was that the Bills had committed at least to get started. The contract should be redone in the off-season; in order to accomplish that, the Bills should have been having conversations during the season - not to finalize the deal but at least to advance the ball. Jason should have known what the schedule was.

If, as I fear, everything has gone sideways, the Bills may now have a guy who doesn't want to be here, who wants even more money, and who will be that much more difficult to motivate in the future.

In short, the Bills should have been building a relationship with Jason over the past three months, and it seems like they weren't.

As I said at the top, it doesn't really matter to me. I'll be rooting for the left tackle wearing the Bills uniform next season. I hope it's Jason Peters. If it isn't, I'll still be at the games.

9. Everyone complains about the pass rush. You know what? With a very few exceptions, if you rush four in the NFL, you don't get to the QB. Most teams do not have a guy who beats his man one-on-one very often. The offensive linemen are too good.

Mercifully, as the game wore on the Bills came with some blitzes. I would have come with more. Pressure created the McKelvin interception, and pressure created the Mitchell interception. You need regular pressure, so that the QB hurries throws and so that the QB is always worrying that you're coming.

And the opposite of the blitz is that awful prevent defense with a three-man rush. Get rid of that baby - that's an automatic first down every time the Bills run it. Terrible. Against good QBs, and Cutler is a good QB, no pass rush leads to pass completions.

The defense on this team is okay. They keep the score down, and that's a good thing. But they give up a lot of yards. Look at the scores this time of year, and look at the teams that are winning. They have defenses that are shutting the opponents down. Tight. The Bills are much too soft.

10. Fred's catch and run was the play of the day. Fabulous. If Trent had thrown it deeper and to the sideline, does Fred go straight to the end zone? Did Trent lead him into the middle of the field intentionally? It was an easier ball to catch that way. Did anyone else worry that Fred would get stripped from behind? I did.

The catch was followed by Xavier not-ready-for-prime-time Omon twice, a great job by Johnson running his route and a great throw by Trent delivering the ball. I will NOT anoint Johnson as the second coming of anyone, but he's definitely showing some stuff.


A woman from Kenmore who now lives in South Carolina and comes to New England for the holidays showed up for the game at the table next to mine at the sports bar in Glastonbury, Connecticut. She was there with her husband, a Packers fan. Bills fans are loyal.

I gave her a Ball Burglar business card and asked her to join. The Ball Burglar has cruised past the $10,000 mark, but we're not done yet. We need you and your friends to join. The Ball Burglar is THE Buffalo Bills fan movement - hundreds have joined and we need hundreds more. Proceeds go to Hunter's Hope and Carly's Club, two great western New York charities fighting serious childhood diseases. Please join today - all we ask is a buck for every takeaway the Bills get. www.Ballburglar.com. Thanks!

Happy holidays to all! See you next week.

GO BILLS!!!

LAST WEEK: 12-4 :: OVERALL: 140-83-1

Can you really believe how short the NFL season is? Baseball spans most of the year. Hockey seems to as well. Basketball is definitely not short. But the NFL season is a mere 17 weeks long. Seems to always go by WAY too quickly.

I'm getting better as the weeks go along. But there are some seriously difficult picks this weekend! Let's take a look.


Any other year, this would have been a tough pick. And it ended up being a close game. But the Colts are streaking, and the Jags are not. And Manning seems to be able to overcome any weaknesses his team has. WINNER: Indianapolis.


This is a really good matchup. Two very good defenses. One great. And two offenses that can score when they need to, edge to Dallas there. Hmm. Really tough. Both teams want it, too. I just think Dallas has been too erratic this season. WINNER: Baltimore


San Diego still has talent, but west coast teams are still not doing well on the east coast this season, and Tampa still has a great defense. WINNER: Tampa Bay


Detroit is well on its way to 0-16. Drew Brees in a dome? Yeah. WINNER: New Orleans


Miami has a great shot at winning the AFC East only one season after going 1-15! WINNER: Miami


West coast team playing at East coast team... AFC East rolls on. WINNER: New England


Two teams playing for next season. WINNER: San Francisco


Game of the week. Could be a preview of the AFC Championship. (Gotta leave room for Indy.) In the end, Pittsburgh is better overall. Defense equals Tennessee's, offense is better. WINNER: Pittsburgh


Not been a good year for Ohio. Going with the hot team. Bengals win their second straight. WINNER: Cincinnati


The Jets have been struggling the last several weeks. Should have lost to the Bills last week, but for JP Losman and Dick Jauron. I think they will struggle on the road against Seattle, and could lose. Jets are the safe pick, but... WINNER: Seattle


Houston has been playing well. And now they get to play Oakland. WINNER: Houston


Not sure the talent is two games different (like their records) but Buffalo does not do well in cold, and they are the ones traveling, and Denver can win their division with a win. The Bills just don't beat playoff teams, no matter how suspect. However, in the Bills favor, they are getting Edwards back, and Lynch has been running really well - and the Broncos defense is atrocious. This one really could go either way. I think I've landed on... WINNER: Buffalo


Another pretty good game here. Two teams playing well. Can Atlanta stop Peterson? Can Minnesota stop Ryan? Going with the home team. WINNER: Minnesota


NFC East battles are always fun. Philly is back, and Washington seems to be fading. WINNER: Philadelphia


Another great game! Both teams have had fantastic years, but Giants are on a bit of a slide. I am going with the upset. WINNER: Carolina


Green Bay started out well. WINNER: Chicago


Bills could win their last game of the season this week. Here's hopin...

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Labels: Greg's Weekly Picks

1. It's a terrible time of the season, and we've been there before. The Bills are out of the playoff hunt. You don't want them to lose because they're your team; you don't want them to win because then you'll be asking all night "why couldn't they do that when it counted?" Then you get a game like this, and it's the worst of both worlds: They play well enough to win on the road against a good team with a Hall of Fame quarterback, then lose anyway. Is there any pain like the pain of being a Bills fan?

2. I have to start with Whitner. If there was any doubt, I think he eliminated it against the Jets: Whitner plays pass defense just well enough to stay with his man and make the tackle after the catch, but not well enough to break up the pass. I can't remember when I've seen him cause an incompletion covering a receiver. I've seen him come out of his zone to make hits on receivers, but simple man-to-man coverage, it's a completion every time. This game was the worst. He led the team in tackles because his receivers caught so many balls.

I wonder what he will guarantee next season.

3. The defensive performance against the Jets also combined the worst of the Bills defense: A touchdown on the first possession (and for good measure, a touchdown on the second possession, too) AND a long run for a score. The Bills defensive strategy seems to be play the standard, passive defense for the first half, see how they're attacking it, make adjustments and stop it. The problem is that it's SO standard and SO passive that the Bills are always in a hole by the time they make their adjustments.

This defense gave up 3 points in the second half and got the ball back over and over for the offense. In the second half, the Jets had an eight play drive that ended with an interception, then five plays and a punt, three plays and a field goal (after the Losman interception), and then three straight three and outs. Once again, the defense played well enough to win (just barely well enough), if the offense had produced (or if the offense hadn't given up a touchdown with two minutes left).

I watch the Bills on Sunday afternoon and then I watch the Sunday night game, and every week I have the same reaction: Why don't the Bills hit like that? Did you see the Giants and Cowboys? They were absolutely pounding each other. Every player took every opportunity to deliver maximum punishment on every play. Steelers do it, Ravens do it, all the good teams do it.

Some fans say the Bills don't hit enough in training camp. Some say they don't practice outside. I think it's all of that and then some. To succeed in this game there has to be a level of hunger, a level of frenzy, a level near madness that we never see from these Bills defenders. Poz makes picture-book tackles but never blows anyone up. When have we seen Whitner hit anyone this season like he hit Chad Johnson last season?

This isn't flag football - it's nearly a war. It isn't Madden - it's NFL football, for Pete's sake.

Memo to Dick Jauron: I saw Yale (remember Yale?) beat Columbia this year. Yale hits harder than the Bills.

4. It seems like every year there are hints that the Bills will start taking some chances, doing the unpredictable. We see a little bit early, then they go back into their shell, and it only when the playoffs are out of reach that they open up again. Fake field goal in the first game, fake punt in this game. I think there was one other fake punt. Wendling leapt over the line to try to block a field goal in the first game, tried it again in this game.

We didn't see the no huddle much at all.

It happens in games, too. First play from scrimmage, the Bills had several defenders on the line of scrimmage. After the first play, the linebackers fell back into their standard 4-3 spots. Not much blitizing, not much of anything that would take Favre out of his comfort zone.

5. We got the worst of both worlds with Just Pray Losman, too. When he's your quarterback, there's nothing you can do except give him the ball and Just Pray Losman doesn't screw it up.

Just Pray said he was putting together a highlight reel, and he was right. This game had everything in the JP arsenal, except the long pass. We saw the rifle arm, the nimble feet, the short-ball inaccuracy, the indecision in the pocket and the turnovers. Touchdown pass was great, interception to Reed was pretty bad, interception to Royal was horrible, and the fumble was, of course, a total disaster.

I don't believe JP finds the open receivers. He clearly doesn't know how to pull the trigger.

And now I'll say what Losman fans have said for a couple of years: At least some of the blame has to fall on the coaches. JP may make lousy decisions when he can't find open receivers, fine. Then it's the coaches' job to run the plays where he CAN find them or to redesign pattens so these receivers CAN get open, because JP hasn't had trouble unloading the ball when he finds the guy. When Trent struggled for several weeks this season, it was the same thing - the QB can't find an open receiver. These quarterbacks have been having the same problems for two years now, and the coaches have failed to find solutions.

6. The grousing about the Bills' playcalling will go on forever.

I didn't have a problem with calling the pass play that lost the game. I can make the argument both ways; in the end I come out in favor of another run because (a) it was time to challenge the O-line to keep delivering and (b) Just Pray has a knack for making the big bad play. But it was second and five, the Bills needed at least one more first down, and the two-minute warning would have stopped the clock, anyway, so an incompletion wouldn't have hurt that badly.

What bothered me more was not running out the clock at the end of the first half. It neither hurt nor helped the Bills. I've had this argument with people forever - I like running out the clock deep in your end on the road, because a bad outcome is more likely than good, and the Bills were down only four. I understand a lot of people see it the other way. That's okay.

What I didn't like about that decision was this: Jauron very clearly believes what I believe - kill the clock and win the game in the second half. If he believes that's correct, it's correct in every game, whether you're 4-1 or 6-7 fighting for the playoffs. If you believe you maximize your chances of winning by killing the clock, why would you open up the offense at that point in the game against the Jets? Or if you believe you maximize your chances of winning by opening up the offense in the last minute of the first half, why have the Bills shut it down in that situation for the last 2+ seasons? There's no point in playing hunches - just decide what's right and do it.

7. Too bad about Hardy. I hope he recovers fully; next year was the year I was hoping he'd begin to prove valuable.

Nice touchdown catch by Johnson. Nice pattern, good grab (and nice celebration by Evans). Ugly run on the end around. The guy clearly is not a ball carrier, but most receivers aren't. Want to know who's a ball carrier? Ellison. That was a great cut on the fake punt.

8. Marshawn was magnificent. Still not a lot of running room, but Marshawn made the most of it. The offensive line, finally, seems motivated to run the ball. I have no doubt the O-line and Marshawn were disappointed when the Bills decided to pass before the two-minute warning. After Marshawn's run, followed by the spectacular touchdown for Jackson, followed by the success running the ball right up to that play, I'd guess the O-line was thinking "pound it five more times and this game is OVER!" It wasn't to be.

9. With all due respect to Mr. Wilson, I don't think it's the players. It's the men who are responsible for getting these players ready to win. Granted, playing with JP is playing with one hand tied behind your back, but well-prepared players don't:

Let the safety get a free run at JP when he fumbled.
Hold on the kickoff return.
Hold on the final punt return.
Give up opening-drive touchdowns every week.
Give up 40+ yard runs almost every week.
Congratualate themselves when they complete an 11-yard pass. The coaches need to explain to the players that the rules permit pass plays to go for more than 20 yards.

10. I have to say it again: I really like Leodis McKelvin. There weren't many balls thrown at him, so that says something about him. Favre wasn't picking on him (why should he? he had Whitner to pick on.) I loved Leodis's pursuit on the Leon Washington TD run. Simpson couldn't close the gap, but Leodis coming across the field could.

Nice kick returns. Too bad about the hold; maybe without the hold he could have made the run any way. (Can't really blame Corto - that was one of those plays where he had to make the block, got locked up with the defender, and held. It happens.)

Leodis can play.


The Bills played pretty well against a quality opponent. Just well enough to allow us to see, again, that this team COULD be good, and just bad enough let us down, hard, one more time this season.

It is very, very hard to be an excited Buffalo Bill fan right now. The only guy who feels worse than all of us is the guy who has to sell new season tickets in 2009. How would like THAT job?

LAST WEEK: 12-4 :: OVERALL: 128-79-1

If not for my BILLS, I could have had the highest total of wins on the season last week. But, they had to prove who they really are. And apparently, they ARE that bad. We'll see what this off-season brings. I still think they are just a few "tweaks" away. (Which could include a new coach...)

Only three weeks of the NFL season to go! Let's see how week 15 might shape up...


New Orleans actually put up a better fight than I thought they would, but in the end, I went with the home team who has Matt Forte. And I was right. WINNER: Chicago.


This may surprise some, but with Matt Schaub back at QB, and the Texans playing better overall, and playing at home (where they play well) ... I'm going with the upset. WINNER: Houston


There was a day when this game wasn't so laughable. But, that was a long time ago. WINNER: Washington


Ugh. Two teams going in COMPLETELY opposite directions. WINNER: Indianapolis (by 31!)


San Diego is clinging to division title hopes... WINNER: San Diego


Seriously, can they win three in a row against the AFC East?? Not on the east coast. WINNER: Miami


Unfortunately, with not much to play for (and Edwards not ready to go) the Bills should lose by 10 points or more. WINNER: NY Jets


One of these teams will reach three wins! WINNER: St. Louis


Both of these teams have had very different years than they expected to. Both had great seasons a year ago, and have been very unpredictable this year. I'm just going with the home team, though I'll probably be wrong, since they are so unpredictable! WINNER: Jacksonville


A second straight big division clash for the Buccaneers. They will want to rebound from losing a close one with the Panthers, but the home teams are something like 11-0 in the NFC South this year. So... WINNER: Atlanta


This should be a really interesting game. Minnesota still has their behemoth tackles, so Arizona will have to pass. But that is what they do best. Arizona has a decent defense, but can they stop Adrian Peterson? Tarvaris Jackson will start. I'm going with the Cards, as they typically play much better at home. They still have an outside chance at the number two seed in the NFC, too. WINNER: Arizona


Denver has been so erratic this season, it's hard to pick them. But against the consistently good Panthers, two time zones away... WINNER: Carolina


Game of the week here. Baltimore lost the first match up in PA earlier this season. Both teams are playing great football. Don't want to miss this one. Steelers are still the better team overall. WINNER: Pittsburgh


New England plays its second straight west coast game. (Against far inferior competition.) But, the Raiders have beaten the Jets, and played the Bills and Dolphins in very tight games - down to the last seconds... Still... can you really pick the Raiders? WINNER: New England


This game really could be good. NFC East games always are. Dallas wants it more, perhaps, but they are a mess. And, NY will not lose back to back division games. (Although Jacobs being out could hurt...) WINNER: NY Giants


Philly is back to playing good football. Cleveland is bad. WINNER: Philadelphia


Some really good divisional matchups this weekend! Wish the Bills game was one of them...

Oh well. There's always next year. (That's been uttered by Bills fans for 10 straight seasons now!)

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Labels: Greg's Weekly Picks

You know how a picture is worth a thousand words? Well I put words IN the picture.



-BBR Other Guy

Labels: Awesome, Bills Fans, Chiefs

I had to work and didn't watch the game. So this is 10 things a Bills fan thinks about his team, having seen 12 games and having "watched" a thirteenth on Gamecast.

1. I don't think there can be any explanation for the total failure of this team to perform than failure of leadership. I think there is decent talent on this team, but the Bills are getting nothing out of them More below.

2. I think Trent Edwards is a good young quarterback who will play well in the NFL for several years, unless his injuries keep him from being effective. I think he would have had greater success this season with a more creative offensive scheme.

3. I think JP Losman is a physically talented young quarterback who, under the right coaches with the right scheme for him, could have some success in the league. Trent is and likely always will be better, but JP's arm and his legs are good enough to win him a spot somewhere. It isn't a secret, but he won't be with the Bills next year. I wish him success. I like him.

4. To date, I have to consider Turk Schonert a failure as an offensive coordinator. How can you conclude otherwise, having seen the offense disappear over the pat few weeks?

Did you see Steve Smith’s touchdown catch against the Bucs? Carolina put him in a motion toward the center of the field, and on the snap the tight end came out into the flat. The pattern caused an instant of confusion and Smith was deep. There seemed to be small, creative details in the play design that I think is completely lacking in the Bills’ offense.

I think good teams create opportunities; I think the Bills are prepared to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. Good opponents, even mediocre opponents, aren’t giving them opportunities.

5. The defense didn't give up a touchdown on the opening drive against the Dolphins. It waited until the second drive. Once again, after giving up the initial touchdown, the defense played reasonably well.

No takeaways again, which is a sign of a passive defense. It's a defense that doesn't scare anyone, it just is fairly stingy when it comes to points.

The Bills defense isn’t spectacular, but it’s playing well enough to win a lot of games. Once again this year, the offense is letting them down.

However, I think the Bills defense is like the offense – it doesn’t create opportunities. That’s why there are so few takeaways. The defense isn’t aggressive and attacking. It plays conservatively and waits for the offense to make a mistake. Pennington kills this defense every year, because Pennington doesn’t make mistakes.

6. Imagine my excitement when I saw on Gamecast that Hardy had caught a first-quarter pass. Imagine my semi-disappointment when I realized he'd fumbled (at least the Bills recovered). Imagine my total disappointment when I read that the call had been reversed. Man, the kid needs work. I won't give up on him this year. But next season he has to show something. No excuses then - he will have had a year to build himself up, to learn how football is played in the NFL. He doesn't have to star in 2009, but he has to show us SOMETHING.

7. I can't bear the thought that the Bills may need a new offensive line. I'm hoping it's coaching; if the Bills need a new offensive line, it'll take another three years to get an offense together.

8. It’s embarrassing enough to play badly before your hometown fans. We’re family, and unfortunately at some level we understand. It’s really embarrassing to take the team on the road, where the objective is to generate excitement for the team and make new fans, and then to play like that. Ralph Wilson called the 49ers game the worst game in Bills’ history, and he said it wouldn’t happen again. I haven’t seen yet what he called the Dolphins game. One thing is certain: it was the worst game in Bills history in Toronto.

9. I just can't see how any management, even this one, can possibly conclude that a major coaching change isn't needed. Wholly ineffective offense. No spark, no crispness, no hope. Uninspired play. Not only is the team bad, the games are boring.

There were a lot of questions about Dick when was hired. Those questions have been answered.

Maybe in some other environment, Dick could succeed. I don't think so. I cannot think of a good professional football coach whose team has failed to show up week after week in important games. Dolphins, Jets, Pats, Browns, 49ers, Dolphins. The Browns game is the only game the Bills were even marginally competitive.

This is his team - his players, his coaches, his offensive and defensive scheme. A good coach with his players and his schemes wins. A bad coach doesn't.

A friend told me that the Bills don’t have any big-time players. I simply can’t believe that year after year the Bills have failed – every time – to take impact players. The law of averages tells us that at least a few of these guys have to be good.

Think about how good we think these players are, and how unspectacular their play is: Whitner, Lynch, Hardy, Dockery, Peters, Edwards, McCargo, Losman, Poz, McKelvin, Stroud, Williams. SOMEBODY has to be good. It seems much more likely to me that these players are being taught a style of play that minimizes their talent, that loses.

I don't see how I can conclude anything different.

10. I feel bad for the Bills good young players. Really bad. They're experiencing football failure that they don't deserve. They need the chance to play on a good team.


The Bills may be losing, but the Ball Burglar is still winning, helping kids who really need your help. Join today - pay a buck for every Bills takeaway. You'll be glad you did. www.Ballburglar.com.

LAST WEEK: 9-7 :: OVERALL: 116-75-1

After a very mediocre week 13 (especially thanks to two late changes - Washington and Green Bay, but also thanks to an incorrectly published pick, Atlanta over San Diego) ... I am starting to think I should just give up for this year!

But I press on. Here's how week 14 might turn out.


Why are these Thursday Night games so easy to pick? WINNER: San Diego.


Big NFC South divisional matchup. New Orleans needs to win. WINNER: New Orleans


Can Detroit win a game? Something tells me this is their best chance of their remaining schedule. WINNER: Minnesota


Two teams that are hard to figure out, but gotta give the nod to the home, cold-weather team. WINNER: Green Bay


It would be surprising if the Jags could finish this game with more points than the Bears. They seem to have packed it in already. WINNER: Chicago


Not long ago this would have been a very exciting game. Lots of offense. This time, it will be one-sided. WINNER: Indianapolis


I still can't figure why the Giants have only one loss. (And that was to Cleveland!) But Philly won't stop them. WINNER: NY Giants


Tennessee gets a "patsy" for a second straight week. WINNER: Tennessee


Buffalo would like some help from Seattle, and the Pats are going all the way across the country, but... WINNER: New England


Can the 49ers beat a team from the AFC East for a second straight week? WINNER: NY Jets


One of KC's two wins was against Denver earlier this season. Denver just shellacked the Jets. Yeah... WINNER: Denver


In the first ever NFL regular season game in Canada, the Bills are in a must-win situation, with their starting QB sitting on the bench. Still, can't go against my team. WINNER: Buffalo


This could be a good game, because Dallas can score points quickly. But look for the Steelers D to dominate Big D. WINNER: Pittsburgh


Can Arizona finally win their division this week??? The answer is yes. WINNER: Arizona


Which team is the home team here? Both should feel at home. WINNER: Baltimore


Another great NFC South matchup. This one is for the division lead. Tough call. Really could go either way, so I almost always give the edge to the home team there. WINNER: Carolina


Bills fans are rooting for Seattle, San Francisco, Cincinnati and Washington (sorta). And, of course, the Bills. That would be a great weekend!!

Here's hopin...
Go Bills!

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Labels: Greg's Weekly Picks

About this time of year all around the world, boys and girls of all ages begin making their Christmas lists. They think long and hard about what they want Jolly Ol' St. Nick to bring them under the tree or in their stockings. Some things come easy, some take more thought, but usually the list is full by the end of the process!

This year, Bills fans were treated to a 5-1 start, best since 1991 (a year in which we were also treated to our second-straight Super Bowl appearance) and that super start has definitely made the recent stretch where they have posted a 2-6 record even more pronounced and harder to bear.

So what do Bills fans want for Christmas? What's on their Christmas list?

First and foremost, you'd have to think that since the season is technically still salvageable, Bills fans want to see four straight wins. Another quarter of the season where they are 4-0. And a win streak going into the playoffs usually spells success in the post season, too. So, beating all three division opponents, plus Denver out at Mile High... that would be tops for this Bills fan, and dare I say most Bills fans.

But some are taking a different approach.

Dick Jauron is in his third season as Bills head coach, and it's really just time to "put up or shut up," as they say. Jauron has only had one winning season in his career. It was a very good season: 13-3. But up-close observers say it was also helped along quite a bit by fortunate bounces and other lucky breaks. Losing bad in their only playoff game that year, and then tanking the next season would suggest they were right.

So now he has two 7-9 seasons with the Bills, and has taken a 4-0 start and managed to go 6-6 by week 13. What do those numbers mean for Jauron and his staff? I'd say they point toward an imminent coaching change.

I have been a big supporter of Dick Jauron. I really like his demeanor, even though most do not. I like the way he has changed the attitude of this team from an arrogant, self-centered bunch of guys to a team-first, hard-working, high character group of guys who love to play together, and are more like a family. I think that is important. And every report I hear is that the players love that, too.

But the question has become, is that enough? And unfortunately, I think after the Cleveland game in which the coaching staff decided to run three straight plays up the middle to settle for a 47-yard field goal (which sailed eerily wide right...) I realized what many have been trumpeting since Jauron was brought to Orchard Park in the first place: the man is just not a winning head coach.

Where do we go from here then? Is it time to rebuild? Time to offer another unproven (or just plain losing) coach the reins once more? Is it time to start over again??? In many ways, I don't think it is, but if I could make the ideal Christmas list, it might look something like this...

Ralph Wilson Sells the Team to Jim Kelly & Friends

We don't yet know who the funding source for Jim Kelly's bid to buy the Bills might be, but the rumors persist that such a group exists. In fact, on Sunday Night Football a few weeks ago, Peter King actually mentioned that fact as though a plan were already in motion to make it so. Until that time, most reports had Wilson not selling the team until after he dies, so that would be a slight change.

To me, this is the key. The Bills have been around for nearly fifty years now, and most all of their head coaches have been second-level coaches. Almost never has a "big name" coach been brought in to run this team. Why? Partly because of the "small market" deal, where Wilson insists we just don't bring in enough money. I'm sure that is true. But it must also be from the owner himself. It's been his philosophy. Spend as little as possible, and hunt for the hidden gems. At times it works, but for the most part... it has not.

But, if Wilson were to sell the team to Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Sabres' Owner Tom Golisano, and whomever else Jim can rustle up, the Bills might begin to take on a different shape. Jim was not a conservative player. He was a "gun slinger". He always trusted his arm to get him out of anything. He was hard-headed, tough-nosed, and a gutsy leader of this blue collar team in a blue collar town. I have to believe he would bring many of those qualities to his role as majority owner of the team.

That would be #1 on my Christmas list.

Mike Holmgren

Nothing against Bills' Chief Operating Officer, Russ Brandon, but he's not a football GM. He is a business and marketing guy. And actually, he's done a very good job. Bills season ticket base is second-highest in team history. The team has successfully "regionalized" and are hoping to further that with the 5-year Toronto Initiative. (First regular season game is this Sunday.)

But he's not a football guy.

Most know that Mike Holmgren, currently the Seattle Seahawks' head coach (and Executive VP of Football Operations... General Manager) is planning to retire from coaching at the end of this season. Another thing the Bills are sorely lacking at the moment is a good man at the top.

When Marv Levy decided to call it quits, the Bills lost their vision caster. I'm not sure Marv was doing much more than just being Marv-elous around the players, coaches, and staff around One Bills Drive. He certainly had a hand in bringing in the talent that is currently on this team (and pulling out the weeds from previous administrations) but he was definitely not the full role of the typical NFL General Manager.

Perhaps Mike Holmgren, a well-respected, long-time student of the game, would be willing to "retire" to a similar role with the Buffalo Bills? There is already a nucleus of talent. With a knowledge of the game, and of the league, and a track record of winning (won Super Bowl with Green Bay, got there with Seattle) it would make sense that he could do it again in Buffalo.

Look at what Bill Parcells has done for Miami in just one season. Perhaps Mike Holmgren could do something similar here with the Bills.

That's item number two for my Christmas list.

Marty Schottenheimer

You've heard us say it on the show. You've heard Bills fans for a few years now mention his name here and there. You've just heard his name right alongside perennial playoff contenders for decades in the NFL. Everywhere Marty has gone, he has won. (He still has the "Can't Win the Big Ones" monkey on his back, but perhaps that could change eventually? Given the right circumstances?)

Schottenheimer is still available. He hasn't been snatched up yet. The Bills greatest struggles in recent years has been their offense. It doesn't make sense when you have players like Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Roscoe Parrish, and even Trent Edwards who has shown so much promise, despite this year's mid-season slump. Perhaps such an offensive-minded coach could be the impetus we need to move to the next level?

(Yes, I know, Schottenheimer played LB with the Bills when he was here in the 60s, but he is known for offensive teams. And he's also known for winning.)

That would be Christmas list item #3.

In the end, I'm not sure I'll really get any of the items on my Christmas list. The Bills have been very consistent in their mediocrity through the years, and most of it starts with the owner, and the way he wants to run his team. Bringing in guys like Holmgren and Schottenheimer are not his typical style. But, you're never too old to change, are you? Ralph just turned ninety, and perhaps he'd like to turn over a new leaf for his team's 50th anniversary in two years...

Or, maybe we'll just keep plugging along with the status quo for Buffalo Bills fans. Some good moments, several bad... and year after football year that end with no meaning... no playoffs... and no real excitement for what lies ahead.

Well this Christmas, I'm hoping for the best. Either we win all four remaining games and make the playoffs, or Ralph calls it quits, and Jim Kelly (and his team), Mike Holmgren, and Marty Schottenheimer come in for the trifecta and take the team to Super Bowl 44 or 45, just in time for the Bills 50th anniversary season.

That would be a Christmas present Bills fans would not soon forget!

Merry Christmas, everyone! And to all, a BILLS WIN!

Labels: Coaching Staff, Offseason, Recommendations

Funny how there is so much more to say when the team is not doing well! One good thing for the Bills is that they actually have quite a few talented players and even if this season is a bust, with new coaching could have a great year next year. The common theory that a coaching change mandates 2-3 years of rebuilding is really not accurate (it has been with the Bills but...). Jon Gruden took the Bucs to the SuperBowl in his first season. Mangini made the playoffs in his first season, So did Tony Dungy, Parcels, etc. There are many more than you might think. Even Tony Sparano has had immediate success with the Dolphins and has a real chance to get the team into the playoffs 1 year after 1-15. Parcels may be the GM but he is not coaching the team, Sparano is and he's doing a great job. Singletary came in mid season and is already making a difference for the 49ers. I guess my point is that, if the Bills actually hire a good coach who calls plays and game plans to the strength of the players on the team rather than forcing the players to try to play in a pre-invented "system", the team can see success quickly. The Bills have a lot of young talent on the team that could make the team very competitive quickly if properly used. What kind of Coach gives Lynch so few carries? Uses his inexperienced (somewhat unproven) QB to throw on critical plays rather than going to their proven ground game? Forcing guys like Leodis McKelvin, who is a strong man to man guy, to play lots of zone in the Tampa Two? You don't need to completely rebuild a team if you know how to take advantage of the players you already have. Dick Jauron and friends scour the draft class for guys that might fit in their system while the best teams take great players and find a way to adjust the system to include them. Put Bobby April at the helm and the Bills would likely win their last 4 games and have a shot. With Jauron in there they really don't have a chance.

It has become abundantly clear to me that this staff does not know how to get the most out of the talent they have on the team. There are two types of coaches, the ones who develop game plans based on the players they have and develop plays and strategies that maximize the potential of the players they have, and there are the type who develop a "Scheme" and try to force their players to fit in the "Scheme". There are always going to be times when a player doesn't work with the style of football you play (ditching a good linebacker because he is a 3-4 guy and you run a 4-3) but those situations should be the exception. It is easy to come up with a list of coaches who develop game plans based on the players they already have, they are the ones that consistently win football games.

As a Bills fan, how many times have you said something to this effect: "That play would have worked great if we had a better Tight End" or maybe "If we had a tall receiver we could have coem down with that catch"? The problem is that, if you don't have a tight end who can make that play, you shouldn't be calling the play. These are classic symptoms of inflexible "scheme" coaching. The Bills haven't had a guy that knew how to utilize his players since Wade Phillips. Wade almost took it too far by trying to change players from week to week in order to come up with a better attack. A good idea with receivers etc, not with QBs.

So the Bills top priority is to find a good coach who knows how to make the most of his players (seems especially key in Buffalo where sometimes the team is a little cheap with player acquisitions). But the second priority is to find a new Quarterback. Sorry Trent Supporters, but this kid is just not tough enough for this league. At this point I have trouble making excuses for his totally inept play whenever the weather isn't perfect. He's sloppy, seems to have trouble with the cold (he's really quick to get in his cape and seems to really be uncomfortable in the cold weather, just looks miserable on the sideline, like a Miami player in town for a visit, not a Bills player). Trent's a nice guy, a good media man, seems to inspire his players and apparently the fans (its the only explaination for the undying support for a guy with really unimpressive career numbers) Trent has a 78.4 Career rating while Losman has a 77.9. If this is your idea of dramatic improvement over Losman, I guess everything is fine. Personally I think the Bills need a new starting QB. Losman is really not part of the discussion as he will most certainly leave as soon as the season is over and his commitment to Buffalo is finished. So even if the Bills want to stick with Edwards (a bad move I think) they will still need to acquire either a veteran free agent or draft another Quarterback to fill in the roster. Ideally they will do both.

Its hard to say which current QBs will hit the free agent market, but the Bills will probably take some mid-level guy, rather than spending big money for an older veteran. I'm ok with this, because the team needs to address the quarterback properly in the draft. Edwards may or may not have been a steal, but the team shouldn't be banking on him being a success. Tom Brady was not drafted to be the starter. Bledsoe was their starter and was not even phased when they drafted Brady to be his backup. Belichick has said publicly, that they chose Brady because he was an inch taller than the other quarterback who was still available that late in the draft. It was dumb luck. The majority of the top quarterbacks in the league are taken early in the first round and come from one of the top football schools. The key difference being that only a dozen or so teams in College football use NFL style offenses.

The vast majority of college teams use simpler offensive systems where receivers are not expected to modify their routes according to reads. In the NFL, most teams encourage their players to adjust their routes according to the defense they encounter. The result should be more open receivers, but things become a lot trickier for the quarterback because the receivers are not where he expects them to be all the time. NFL quarterbacks need to be able to quickly read the field and instantly adjust to changed routes and find their open receivers. Coming out of college, players like Losman and Edwards who went to schools like Tulane and Stanford don't get the benefit of coming into the NFL with experience operating a Pro Offense. (who knows what to call the mess that was Stanford football while Trent was there). So unless the QB is coming from a school like Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Boston College etc. there is a greater learning curve to be expected and a much greater chance the guy just won't be able to handle an NFL style offense. The Bills need to stop being cute and go after a proven quarterback in the draft like Colt McCoy (although not necessarily him) who has essentially already had expeience in a Pro system. Then they need to start him right away rather than leaving him on the bench to lose all the momentum and excitement he had coming out of college and the draft.

The Bills also need to pick up at least three defensive ends and another linebacker or two. At defensive end they should look to free agency and pick up a proven talent as well as a project guy then also take the best guy they can get in the draft. They need to spend their top pick on quarterback, so probably a 2nd rounder.

The biggest question is wether the Bills brain trust has the guts to make the big moves. I think at least, they will fire Jauron. Ralph Wilson skipped out on the press conference after Sunday's embarassing loss and seems to be thoroughly displeased with Jauron. NFL teams are not responsible for voided coaching contracts so there is really no reason to keep Dick Jauron around, regardless of wether there was an extension signed or proposed or whatever. Coaching contracts are little more than a show of intent. Lets just hope the Bills bring in the right guy to replace him. If they make the right choice, there won't be any rebuilding to worry about.

1. Why don't we start by honoring a great football team in Orchard Park, NY? That would be the Orchard Park High School Quakers, who scored 21 unanswered points in the second half to win the New York State Championship in Syracuse on Sunday. 21-17 final. (Meanwhile, the other team in Orchard Park managed 3 unanswered points in a stirring 10-3 loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL.)

Congratulations to Section VI, which won FOUR state football championships over the weekend. No Section had won more than two in any previous year.

2. This week's 10 Things requires more creativity than in past weeks, so be kind to me. Creativity is required because (a) there's no point in savagely bashing the team and coaches for a couple of pages, and (b) NOTHING HAPPENED IN THE GAME. That was about the most boring football game I've ever seen. The level of futility reached a new high (or is it low?) for the NFL.

The LA Times captured it best: "San Francisco 10, Buffalo 3 - Can you imagine saving your money to go see one game all year, and this is the game you chose?"

Leaving the stadium, I overheard one fan say "nothing exciting happened in the whole game." And he was nearly correct. Marshawn's long run and a couple of other runs were exciting. Leodis's kick return made the grade, as did one Roscoe punt return. That was about it.

3. McKelvin is really growing on me. He was schooled a couple of times by Isaac Bruce (including on the touchdown), but that would leave Leodis in pretty good company. Isaac Bruce has taught a lot of lessons in his career.

I was at the game and didn't see good replays, but the interference call against Leodis seemed pretty weak. He also missed a couple of tackles in run support, but he was there to make the play - he'll learn to finish. He looks decent now, and his potential is obvious.

And Leodis certainly has figured out how to return kicks. He's downright scary back there.

In the second half, I actually found myself thinking the Bills had a better chance of scoring when they were on defense, because Leodis might get a pick. (Of course, I believed Marshawn could score, but the Bills weren't going to give him the ball inside the 10. More about that later.)

I wasn't thrilled with the draft pick at the time, but it clearly was a good move.

4. I entered the Stadium early on Sunday, and I walked right up to the security officer - no waiting. That was completely different from the Monday night game, when 45 minutes before there game there was a big (and dangerous) crowd, pushing people from behind and creating a frightening environment. People were getting injured and feared for their lives. I understand that as game time approached for the 49ers game, the backup grew again.

No need to worry about the crowds at the security lines for the New England game. All three BIlls fans ought to be able to get into the game without incident, unless 75,000 Patriots fans show up.

5. The Ball Burglar had an okay day - one takeaway. The Bills "forced" several fumbles, but they really deserve little credit for some. The one they recovered was, for the second week in a row, an unforced fumble - the ball carrier went to the ground without having been touched and fumbled on his own. Another "forced" fumble was a mishandled snap. Denney did force one nicely on his sack.

The Bills definitely need to do better taking the ball away, but it's hard to do when the defense plays so passively. Against the 49ers, they didn't seem to be in attack mode. There wasn't much pass rush, there wasn't a lot of blitzing, and there looked to be a lot of cover two again, with the linebackers dropping. The defense worked fine to keep the score down, but it didn't produce any opportunities for the offense. In other words, the defense really played well, but it put me to sleep. The offense, of course, did nothing to rouse me from my slumber.

6. The defense gets high praise and a question mark at the same time. The question mark is the opening drive. The Bills are making it a habit, giving up a touchdown on the opening drive. I like deferring to the second half - the second half is the time to win games, and you want the ball to open the second half. However, it's maddening to be down seven without even having had the ball.

Sunday was really bad - that was a 14-play, eight minute drive in which the defense let the 49ers convert four consecutive third downs. That's absolutely horrible. It was passive defense at its worst.

(All season long the Bills have seemed to be unprepared to play at the beginning of the game. It's one of many problems that lead me to believe that these coaches may be good teachers but not good game coaches.)

After that, the defense did what a good defense is supposed to do against a lousy offense: shut it down. For the remaining 52 minutes of the game, the 49ers gained 123 yards (77 passing and 46 rushing), were 3 for 11 on third down conversions and got only 7 first downs. At least one first down came on a Bills penalty. The 49ers couldn't run and they couldn't pass. Was it the Bills defense or were the 49ers just bad? I'll give the nod to the defense, just to be positive.

7. Congratulations also to UB, in line for the second bowl bid in the history of the school - and first bowl appearance. They play exciting, watchable football. OBD, are you listening?

If you're looking for an interesting article about how times have changed, read this article about UB's first bowl bid, 50 years ago.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=buffalo58

I lived a few blocks from the UB field and used to go to some of those games.

8. Everyone fell down against the 49ers, even the special teams. Two missed field goals, an ugly punt, and Roscoe getting himself tackled deep on a punt. One time the players on the kick receiving team had to run to the sideline to remind Ryan Denney that he was supposed to be on the field. And didn't the Bills call a timeout to get organized on special teams one time? (I've forgotten.)

Still, Bobby April is the only coach on this team who week after week shows that he knows how to make things happen. Year after year he takes whoever is available and turns them into top kick return and kick coverage teams. Currently 4th in kick returns, second in punt returns, second in kick coverage and 26th (!) in punt coverage. It isn't an accident.

The guy knows how to organize his teams, and he knows how to game plan for his opponents. I honestly don't know that any of the other coaches know how to do it.

9. Hard to know what we have in Trent now. All of the negative comments from months ago certainly look like they're being borne out: can't play in bad weather, injury prone, mediocre arm, etc. It's really hard to know if yesterday was weather, the injury, his confidence, what. It's pretty discouraging. I'm still confident that he's a quality QB in the making. Sunday was not his finest hour.

The Bills got the same old same old from JP. Great arm - man, he really can deliver the ball. Not-so-good decision making. On one sack, they showed an isolated view of Hardy on the Jumbo Tron - Hardy was running a streak with man coverage, and he had at least seven inches on the guy Instead of taking the sack, why not throw it out there and let the big guy make the play? (Is that JP's fault, or the coaches? I don't know; but it was a better choice than a sack.)

I don't think quarterbacking lost this game. I think coaching did.

10. Something is seriously wrong within the team (coaches and players). There were several questions after the game about why the Bills are late getting to the line of scrimmage. JP isn't diplomatic enough to know how to avoid the issue in public - he said he's a team guy and he's going to keep team issues in-house. He said they can ask all they want; he will not talk about in-house issues. By saying that he made it clear that there are in-house issues. Trent was better covering it up, but it was clear even with him that this team's play calling is disorganized.

What are the problems? Are Dick and Turk disagreeing about play calls? Who knows? What is obvious is that the Bills are sluggish and indecisive on the field and ill-prepared for games (that's why they always start slowly). They have none of the crispness on offense that we saw at the beginning of the year. They are slow and predictable. Between the slow play calls, the runs and the short passes, it seems like Bills drives take five minutes to go 20 yards. It's excrutiatingly painful to watch. In fact, the quality and the pace of the play takes the home fans out of the game. It's impossible to be enthusiastic watching football played at a pace more suited to golf.

The entire team is out of sync. Trent scrambled and ran into his blocker. Fred caught a screen pass and ran into his blocker. JP passed up a a great up-the-gut scramble and cut to the outside for no gain. The special teams had their issues.

TV watchers probably couldn't see it, but during one time out, with the Bills on offense, Takeo, Jason and Josh stood around the ball chatting. I hate to see that. After the game, fine, but during the game that guy is the ENEMY. I have to believe Tom Coughlin would chew their butts from here to San Francisco for doing that.

This team doesn't threaten anyone, on offense or on defense. It doesn't say "here we come to kick your butt." Instead, it says "here we are, how about a friendly game?"

The Bills finally started running the ball with some success in the past few weeks, but against the 49ers they abandoned the run - Losman and Edwards attempted 38 passes, and Lynch and Jackson carried only 21 times. Take away Marshawn's 50-yard run, and he still had 84 yards in 15 carries, almost 6 yards per. The Bills played the first half with an injured QB and the second half with their backup, against a mediocre rushing defense, averaged 6.2 yards per carry and passed almost twice as much as they ran!

The Bills ran seven plays (or more? someone said nine) inside the 49ers' 10 yard-line, and Marshawn Lynch touched the ball once. Which was the one play he got the ball? Immediately after his 50-yard carry - no chance to get a blow, nothing. That was it - let him run fifty yards, call his number again; before and after that, never. Marshawn has to know that when he breaks a long one, he MUST get into the end zone, because the chances are slim that he'll get another chance or that anyone else will get the job done.

This team at 5-1 was in ideal position to go to playoffs. As they entered crunch time in the season, they folded, badly. They didn't show up for must-win game after must-win game. The Bills haven't been ready for a game in six weeks. Even against Kansas City, without the Leodis INTs, they could have been in trouble. They gave up nearly 500 yards to a team with one win.

I look at all these things and I conclude the coaches don't know how to make a team a winner.


I'm a Bills fan. I'll watch forever. Next week, we'll win. I know it. I don't know how, but we will.

That's what I think every week.

See you here in a week.